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Read More LEADING ECONOMIC AND POLICY NEWSInflation Accelerated At A 2.8% Annual Rate Last MonthBloomberg reports that the Federal Reserve’s “preferred gauge of underlying US inflation rose at a brisk pace in March, reinforcing concerns of persistent price pressures that are likely to delay any interest-rate cuts.” According to Bloomberg, “The so-called core personal consumption expenditures price index, which strips out the volatile food and energy components, increased 0.3% from the prior month, data out Friday showed. From a year ago, it advanced 2.8%.” CNBC reports, “Including food and energy, the all-items PCE price gauge increased 2.7%, compared with the 2.6% estimate.” Reuters says the report “offered some relief to financial markets spooked by worries of stagflation after data on Thursday showed inflation surging and economic growth slowing in the first quarter.” However, Bloomberg says core PCE “picked up in March when drawn to two decimal places.” According to Bloomberg, “The difference may look minor on a monthly basis, but the implications for annualized rates – which the Fed targets – are much greater.” The AP says, “The chronically elevated measures of inflation have become a source of frustration for the Fed, whose policymakers had projected as recently as last month that they expected to cut their benchmark rate three times this year.” According to the AP, “Most economists expected the cuts to begin in June,” but “more recently,” Fed Chair Jerome Powell and other policymakers “signaled that they have no immediate plans to cut their key rate, a move that would eventually lead to lower rates for mortgages, auto loans, credit cards and many business loans.” The New York Times points out the Fed “meets next week in Washington to discuss its next rate move,” and is “widely expected to leave interest rates unchanged.” The Times adds if inflation “continues to remain sticky in the months to come, it could prod officials to keep interest rates at their current relatively high level for an extended time as they try to tap the brakes on the economy and snuff out price increases more fully.” Reuters says in the wake of Friday’s report, “futures contracts that settle to the Fed’s policy rate interest-rate futures prices pointed to about a 60% chance of a rate cut at the U.S. central bank’s mid-September meeting, slightly more than before the report.” However, the New York Times reports “some” investors and economists “are increasingly dubious that Fed officials will manage to lower [interest rates] at all this year” due to “surprisingly stubborn” inflation. Powell Expected To Dampen Hopes For Rate Cuts Following Inflation DataBloomberg reports that in remarks which “will be closely parsed by investors,” Fed Chair Jerome Powell “will address reporters after the Fed’s rate decision on Wednesday, when the central bank is widely expected to hold borrowing costs at a more than two decade high.” According to Bloomberg, recent data, “which showed stubborn underlying inflation, in tandem with expectations for a robust employment report on Friday, aren’t likely to lead the Fed chief to change his tune.” As a result, Bloomberg says that “expectations for rate reductions have been pushed further into 2024, and investors are now betting on two cuts at most by year-end.” S&P 500, Nasdaq Had Best Week Since November As Treasury Yields SpikedCNBC reports, “Stocks jumped Friday, and the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite notched their best week since November as Big Tech names rallied on strong earnings and traders pored through fresh U.S. inflation data.” The S&P 500 “advanced 1.02% to settle at 5,099.96. The tech-heavy Nasdaq climbed 2.03% to close at 15,927.90 and secure its best daily move since February.” And the Dow Jones Industrial Average” rose 153.86 points, or 0.4%, to finish at 38,239.66.” For the week, the S&P “popped 2.7% to snap a three-week losing streak, while the Nasdaq gained 4.2% for its first positive week in five. The Dow edged up 0.7%.” Bloomberg reports that “a selloff in US Treasuries paused on Friday, bringing yields down from their highest levels of the year, after a report on inflation allayed concern about a spate of hotter-than-expected price data.” On Friday, Treasury yields “declined as investors interpreted the latest reading of the Federal Reserve’s preferred gauge of inflation to support at least one interest-rate cut by the end of the year.” CNBC reports that “the 10-year Treasury yield slipped around 4 points to 4.667%. The yield on the 2-year Treasury lost almost a basis point to trade at, 4.987%.” CNBC notes that on Thursday, “the yields on the 10-year Treasury and 2-year Treasury soared to their highest levels since November. That followed the release of a weaker-than-expected U.S. gross domestic product reading.” Previous Top Stories | |||||||||||
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